Iran war: Why is Russia not coming to Tehran’s aid?

Iran War: Why is Russia Not Coming to Tehran’s Aid?

In the midst of escalating US-Israeli strikes on Iran, the nation’s struggling government has relied heavily on Moscow’s backing. Yet, despite its crucial alliance with Russia, Tehran has seen little direct support from its partner. Just hours after the bombardment began, Russia’s UN delegate, Vassily Nebenzia, labeled the attacks as an “unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign UN member state.”

Moscow stands as one of Tehran’s most steadfast allies, despite being a scarce source of international backing. A shift in this partnership could threaten Russia’s geopolitical and economic interests. However, experts question why Moscow hasn’t intervened more forcefully. Nikita Smagin, an Azerbaijan-based analyst specializing in Russia and the Middle East, highlights key economic ties between the two nations. “The North-South transport corridor is a major project,” he said. “It became vital after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which disrupted traditional transit routes.”

“The partnership between Russia and Iran, however, is not about ideology — Russian politicians don’t particularly like Iran,” Smagin added. “But they view Tehran as a reliable strategic partner, as both countries face international sanctions. Unlike Turkey or Egypt, which might halt trade with Russia if pressured by the West, Iran continues to support Moscow.”

Iran has also contributed to Russia’s military efforts, notably by supplying Shahed drones since 2023. Julian Waller, a research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses in the US, noted the impact of these drones. “Iran was useful for the Russian war effort,” Waller said. “Even as Russia indigenized drone production, Tehran’s experience with sanctions evasion has offered Moscow valuable guidance.”

Russia is further reported to have shared intelligence with Iran and provided missiles and ammunition. Nonetheless, the relationship lacks ideological alignment. “The two countries are not defensive allies,” Waller stated. Some analysts suggest an informal agreement with Israel may also deter Moscow from direct intervention.

“Tehran was nonetheless expecting tangible political and military support from Moscow,” said Mojtaba Hashemi, an international relations expert. “This included expanded military-technical cooperation, intelligence sharing, and a deterrent message to its enemies — not just verbal assurances.”

Hashemi argued that Iran miscalculated Moscow’s commitment. “Russia and China have bigger problems to address,” he noted. “Their support has primarily taken the form of weapons and tools for repression.”

Mohammad Ghaedi, a George Washington University lecturer, contended that Tehran had long anticipated Moscow’s hesitancy. “Skepticism about relying on Russia has existed in Iran for years,” Ghaedi said. “Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad once claimed, ‘Russia has always sold out the Iranian nation.’ And President Masoud Pezeshkian recently remarked, ‘Countries we considered friends did not help us during the war.'”

Gregoire Roos, director of Europe and Russia studies at Chatham House, proposed potential advantages for Russia in a prolonged conflict. “The media focus would shift away from Zelenskyy, as attention centers on Iran and the risk of escalation,” Roos explained. “Additionally, Washington might struggle to sustain its campaign in the region.”