Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?

Can the US Military Sustain an Extended Conflict in Iran?

As the United States intensifies its military operations in Iran, officials remain optimistic about the nation’s ability to maintain a prolonged campaign. However, concerns are emerging over the availability of high-grade weaponry, particularly defensive systems, which may limit the scope of this effort. Despite claims of “virtually unlimited” supplies, the effectiveness of these assets could be tested as the conflict escalates.

Operation Epic Fury and the Initial Strikes

On February 28, the US initiated Operation Epic Fury, a significant operation targeting Iran. In the subsequent week, thousands of strikes were executed across the country, with more than 20 weapon systems deployed through air, land, and sea. The initial phase of strikes, involving US-Israeli forces, reportedly led to the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.

“We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” stated Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a visit to US Central Command in Florida on March 5. “Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as we need.”

“We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense,” added General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Despite these assurances, Trump has subtly acknowledged potential shortfalls. In a March 2 post on Truth Social, he noted that while “medium and upper medium grade” munitions are at their peak, “highest end” stockpiles are still not optimal. This highlights a nuanced view of US military readiness.

Weapon Cost Analysis and Strategic Concerns

The financial implications of the conflict are becoming increasingly complex. Iran’s Shahed-136 drones, costing between $20,000 and $50,000 to produce, are being countered by US fighter jets equipped with AIM-9 missiles, which cost $450,000 each, and operate at $40,000 per hour. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, emphasized that the cost efficiency of these systems is a key issue.

“The cost of operating the fighter for an hour is equivalent to the cost of a Shahed,” said Grieco. “It’s not efficient. It’s not a favorable cost exchange.”

Grieco also suggested the US could learn from Ukraine’s experience, where cheaper interceptor drones have been used effectively. She pointed out that the US has tested such technology but hasn’t scaled up its procurement. “The United States has tested [that technology], it just hasn’t purchased it in sufficient numbers,” she added.

Meanwhile, the more expensive Patriot defense missiles, priced around $3 million each, are critical for intercepting Iran’s ballistic missiles. However, their limited availability raises alarms. Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that stocks are being depleted rapidly. “I think there were about 1,000 Patriots and we’ve chewed into that inventory quite a bit now,” he said, estimating that 200-300 have already been used.

Lockheed Martin’s production of PAC-3 interceptors, which delivered only 620 in 2025, underscores the challenge. Cancian explained that ordering an additional Patriot missile could take at least two years to fulfill. This timeline creates a bottleneck for maintaining an extended military presence.

Production Efforts and Expert Skepticism

In response to these concerns, Trump met with defense manufacturers on March 6, announcing plans to quadruple production of high-end weaponry. The White House emphasized the meeting had been planned for weeks, yet Grieco questioned the impact of these commitments. “I found that to be like a non-announcement because in the last months most of these had already been announced,” she remarked.

While the US has ample supply for shorter-range weapons like bombs and Hellfire missiles, the sustainability of the war hinges on the availability of advanced systems. Cancian noted that “militarily, I think we could sustain it for a very long time” with current ground munitions, but the question remains whether the higher-grade stockpiles can keep pace.

To view this video, please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video.