After 16 years in power, can Viktor Orban finally be unseated?

After 16 years in power, can Viktor Orban finally be unseated?

On March 27, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban addressed a mass rally in Györ, his voice trembling as he denounced opposition protesters chanting “Filthy Fidesz” during his speech. The moment revealed a stark contrast to his usual composed demeanor, hinting at the growing pressure on his 16-year rule.

The latest opinion polls show a significant shift, with opposition leader Peter Magyar’s Tisza party now leading Fidesz by a 58% to 35% margin. This marks a turning point for Orban, who has spent years maintaining dominance. As the April 12 parliamentary election approaches, he’s ramping up efforts to sway undecided voters, vowing to protect his government from a potential collapse.

“We can notice a big change in public perception,” said Endre Hann of the Median agency. “In January, 44% believed Fidesz would win, but by March, 47% supported Tisza. This reflects a huge change of trust.”

Orban’s allies, including U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, have long backed his administration. Yet, his government has become a target of criticism, particularly among younger voters who view Fidesz as the “corrupt ruling elite.” Accusations of misusing public funds persist, with state contracts allegedly funneled to associates like his son-in-law, Istvan Tiborcz, who owns a chain of prominent hotels, and childhood friend Lörinc Meszaros, a former gas fitter turned billionaire.

Despite denying any wrongdoing, Orban has avoided addressing personal wealth ties. Analysts suggest his campaign now relies on shifting blame to Ukraine and its EU allies, framing them as the source of Hungary’s challenges. Can this narrative convince rural voters, Fidesz’s traditional base, that he still offers a vision of a more humane and efficient nation?

The opposition’s strategy has been bolstered by tactics such as alleged voter intimidation and a Russian-backed plot to stage a fake assassination attempt on Orban. However, Fidesz claims these are mere tools to create a story of fraud if they lose. “All these scandals are just the usual suspects trying to build a narrative,” noted Zoltan Kiszelly of the government think tank Szazadveg. “When the opposition loses, they’ll use it to accuse ‘fraud’.”

Political analyst Gabor Török, respected by both sides in Hungary’s polarized landscape, observed: “This is not the ‘calm strength’ or ‘strategic calm’ image, nor the one carefully displayed on ‘Prime Minister of Hungary’ posters. If the final weeks unfold as they have, it doesn’t bode well for the government.”

The stakes extend beyond Hungary. “Budapest is the headquarters of illiberal democracy in the world,” argued Michael Ignatieff, former rector of the Central European University, which was driven out of the city in 2019. “This election is a referendum on the authoritarian model Orban has championed for years.”