Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large

Bowen: Trump’s Call for an Iran Uprising Echoes 1991’s Lessons

Recalling the First Gulf War’s Unintended Consequences

Thirty-five years after a pivotal moment in history, the parallels between Donald Trump’s current rhetoric and George H.W. Bush’s 1991 speech remain striking. At the time, the then-president visited a Patriot missile factory in Massachusetts, where he praised the workers behind the advanced weaponry set to debut in the Gulf War. His address, delivered during the early stages of the conflict, framed the situation as an opportunity for Iraq’s military and people to rise against Saddam Hussein. Yet, the president’s words would later be overshadowed by the brutal suppression of the ensuing uprisings.

“There’s another way for the bloodshed to stop…and that is for the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein, the dictator, to step aside…”

While the American public celebrated the speech, the reality on the ground was stark. In the days prior, an airstrike in Amiriyah had claimed over 400 civilian lives, including many women, children, and elderly individuals. The U.S. and British forces claimed the target was a command center, but the evidence—smoldering rubble and the bodies of the victims—revealed otherwise. I was in Baghdad at the time, immersed in covering the conflict, and the sight of those atrocities lingered in my mind.

Though Bush’s speech was intended to inspire a peaceful resolution, it sparked immediate action. After the Iraqi army was expelled from Kuwait, a ceasefire allowed Saddam to retain power. This led to a surge in rebellion, particularly among Shias in the south and Kurds in the north. The coalition forces, including the U.S., UK, and France, observed these uprisings but chose not to intervene. The result was a devastating counteroffensive by the Iraqi regime, which killed thousands of rebels.

The aftermath of the first Gulf War rippled through years of geopolitical shifts. The establishment of no-fly zones, American military bases, and the presence of foreign troops in Saudi Arabia fueled Osama bin Laden’s resentment, ultimately contributing to the formation of Al Qaeda. Today, as Trump and Netanyahu urge Iranians to rise against their government, the echoes of 1991’s miscalculations are once again present. The current campaign aims to destabilize Iran’s regional influence, a goal accelerated by the 2003 war that toppled Saddam Hussein.

Yet, the key difference lies in the promises made. While Bush’s speech left the regime intact, Trump’s call for action is framed as a partnership. However, history suggests that without direct military support, the outcome may mirror the past. As I reflect on the frozen mountains in Kurdish northern regions, where thousands fled with tales of massacre, I cannot ignore the recurring pattern: the power of rhetoric, the weight of expectations, and the cost of unfulfilled promises.