The US-Israeli war on Iran is founded on two huge mistakes
The US-Israeli War on Iran Built on Two Critical Errors
Over two weeks after Israel and the United States launched a military strike against Iran, the operation has revealed two significant strategic misjudgments underpinning the conflict. The first stems from American miscalculations about the likelihood of dismantling Iran’s ruling authority, while the second reflects an Israeli misunderstanding of Hezbollah’s capacity to respond.
A Shifting Narrative of Regime Change
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a televised address following the strike, claimed that immediate action was essential to neutralize Iran’s “industries of death” before they became unstoppable. “If we had not acted quickly, the Islamic Republic’s arsenal would have grown beyond our ability to counter,” he stated. The US and Israel framed their assault as a means to empower Iran’s populace to overthrow the regime, positioning it as a path toward a “historic victory” that would secure long-term stability in the region.
“Our objective is to prevent Iran from developing ballistic missiles that threaten Israel, the United States, and the world. That is our aim,” Netanyahu emphasized, highlighting the perceived urgency of the operation.
Despite these assurances, the attack has not yet achieved the desired outcome. Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, while damaged, remain intact. The country has also demonstrated resilience, replacing its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei—a sign that the system continues to function.
Unintended Consequences and Unforeseen Resistance
US President Donald Trump asserted that the conflict had averted a nuclear war, claiming Iran would have launched an attack first. However, the reality is that Iran has not only survived but has retaliated effectively. In the Gulf and against Israeli targets, it has executed strikes that inflicted substantial damage and claimed American lives. These actions have threatened the Strait of Hormuz, potentially triggering a severe energy crisis reminiscent of the 1970s.
Experts note that the assumption of Iran’s vulnerability was based on earlier military successes. The 12-day war in June 2025, which Israel described as a “historic victory,” supposedly reduced the Islamic Republic’s capacity to strike. Yet, recent events suggest this assessment was overly optimistic. Demonstrations in Iran, though ongoing, have not sparked the widespread upheaval the US and Israel anticipated. This indicates that the Iranian establishment has not yet reached a breaking point.
The Unfolding Reality
What has evolved since the initial strike is a growing realization that the goals of regime change may not be within reach. The resilience of Iran’s leadership and its ability to launch counterattacks challenge the narrative of an easy victory. The attack has not only failed to weaken Iran’s core structures but has also reinforced its determination to resist foreign intervention.
As the conflict continues, it is becoming clear that the US and Israel’s war on Iran has inadvertently strengthened the regime’s grip. This outcome casts doubt on their strategic assumptions, revealing that their plan to topple Iran’s government may have been based on flawed projections of the country’s internal dynamics and external capabilities.
