Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
The Grand National, held at Aintree, is a staple of the British horse racing calendar. This year’s edition, on Saturday, 11 April, features 34 contenders, making it a challenging event to predict. While previous winners might offer some clues, BBC Sport has analyzed historical data to uncover potential patterns for the 2026 race.
Past Winners and Odds
Since 2000, the race has had 25 renewals, with a gap in 2020 due to the pandemic. Tiger Roll stands out as the shortest-priced winner in 2019, achieving a rare double victory at 4-1. In contrast, Mon Mome in 2009 was the longest-priced winner at 100-1. The average odds for the last century have been just under 24-1, though eight winners have come at 33-1 or higher. This suggests that higher odds shouldn’t necessarily deter bettors, especially as the average has dropped in the past decade to 11-1 or shorter on five occasions.
Weight Trends and Performance
Winners of the past 25 races have carried weights ranging from 10st 3lb to 11st 9lb. This trend might limit the field, as I Am Maximus in 2024, a top-weight contender, could become the first to win since Red Rum in 1974. Over the past 11 years, nine winners have been within 10st 5lb to 11st 8lb, with the average weight hovering around 10st 12lb to 10st 13lb. Notably, horses carrying 11st 6lb have secured three victories, highlighting its significance.
Age and Experience
Recent years have seen a shift in age trends, with no horse aged 10 or older winning since 2014. Noble Yeats broke another trend in 2022, becoming the first seven-year-old champion since Bogskar in 1940. In the last decade, six winners were eight years old, and three were nine, including Tiger Roll’s return to victory in 2019. This indicates a focus on horses aged eight or nine, though experience remains a variable factor.
Trainers and Jockeys
Willie Mullins, who trained the last two winners, has seen his first triumphs since 2005. He has also had six top-five finishes in the past 10 years, showing consistent presence. Gordon Elliott, with back-to-back wins for Tiger Roll, has achieved four top-five placements in the last decade. Henry de Bromhead’s 2021 victory and two places further underscore the role of trainers in shaping outcomes. Together, these three trainers will handle 16 of the 34 runners.
Official Ratings
Handicappers assign official ratings to each horse, reflecting their performance level. Fourteen of the past 16 winners have been rated 146 or higher, with 13 falling between 146 and 160. I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett, the 2025 winner, both fit this pattern, offering a statistical insight into the competition’s dynamics.
