Xi’s long game with Trump: What I’ve learned after covering 30 years of US-China ties

Xi’s Long Game with Trump: What I’ve Learned After Covering 30 Years of US-China Ties

Xi s long game with Trump - Thirty years ago, when I first began reporting on the evolving relationship between the United States and China, the primary issues dividing the two nations often centered around the so-called "three Ts": Tiananmen, Tibet, and Taiwan. These topics, which dominated headlines during high-level diplomatic encounters, were deeply tied to perceptions of China’s human rights record. Tiananmen symbolized the 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations, while Tibet represented the ongoing struggle over sovereignty in the Himalayan region. Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Beijing as part of its territory, remained a constant flashpoint. Fast forward to the present, and the geopolitical chessboard has shifted dramatically. This week’s summit in Beijing between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping marks another chapter in this saga, with a new set of priorities taking center stage: tariffs, technology, and Taiwan—now joined by Tehran as the fourth key element. The transformation in focus reflects a broader realignment of power and influence in the global arena.

The Shift from Values to Economics

What was once a values-driven discourse has evolved into a more pragmatic negotiation. Taiwan, still regarded as a critical issue by Beijing, remains a focal point, but the conversations have moved away from the moral dimension of human rights to the tangible stakes of trade and economic strategy. The U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, who once voiced sharp criticism of China’s governance and was sanctioned by Beijing for his stance, has adopted a more measured approach. This shift underscores the changing priorities in Washington, where the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has taken the lead in steering bilateral ties. His recent meeting with the Chinese counterpart in Seoul, prior to the Beijing summit, signals a new dynamic in how the U.S. approaches its strategic partnership with China.

Xi Jinping, the most powerful Communist leader since Chairman Mao Zedong’s passing five decades ago, has solidified his grip on the country’s economic and military apparatus. His governance style, characterized by centralized control and state-driven initiatives, has reshaped global trade dynamics and technological competition. Yet, the current geopolitical landscape is not solely a product of Beijing’s policies. Many analysts argue that President Trump’s actions have inadvertently bolstered China’s position, tipping the balance in its favor. His tenure, marked by a departure from traditional international trade norms and a reorientation of security alliances, has created an environment where China’s ambitions can thrive.

Trump’s "Nation-Building Trump" Rhetoric

Trump’s influence on this shift is both deliberate and unintended. During his first term, he challenged decades of U.S. foreign policy, but the impact of his return to the White House in early 2025 has been more pronounced. His approach to international relations, often described as transactional, has led to a redefinition of America’s role in global affairs. This has earned him a nickname in Chinese social media:

"Nation-Building Trump."

The phrase, while seemingly complimentary, carries a subtle critique of his alleged ability to strengthen China’s standing on the world stage through his strategic moves.

The Iran war, for instance, has diverted U.S. attention and resources from other regions, creating opportunities for China to assert its dominance. The conflict, which has left the Middle East in turmoil, has also strained America’s alliances and economic focus. Meanwhile, China, with its vast reserves of rare earth minerals—a critical component in modern weapons and technology—has maintained a strategic advantage. This has allowed Beijing to position itself as a more reliable global partner, even as Trump pushes for increased pressure on Iran. The U.S. may now find itself negotiating from a position of relative weakness, with China’s early pivot to green energy offering a buffer against the volatility of oil markets.

Domestic Pressures and Diplomatic Calculations

Xi’s ability to navigate these challenges is partly attributed to his mastery of domestic and international strategy. Despite facing economic headwinds, including self-defeating price wars in manufacturing and service sectors, and a demographic crisis marked by low birth rates, the Chinese leader has shown an uncanny ability to adapt. His administration’s focus on boosting domestic consumption and reducing reliance on foreign supply chains has created a more resilient economic framework. These moves, while critical for long-term stability, have also given Xi room to maneuver in his dealings with Trump.

Trump’s push for "deliverables" from the summit has forced Beijing into a delicate balancing act. By offering American agricultural products and Boeing jets, Xi could secure political capital ahead of U.S. mid-term elections. This tactic highlights the intersection of economic diplomacy and domestic politics, where trade agreements serve as both economic tools and symbolic victories. The so-called "Board of Trade" concept, proposed by Trump officials to manage bilateral negotiations, has been met with skepticism in Beijing. However, China’s well-established bureaucracy—comprising over 7 million civil servants—ensures that even new structures can be swiftly integrated into the existing system.

As the U.S. grapples with internal divisions and external distractions, China has positioned itself as a stabilizing force in a world increasingly fragmented by ideological and geopolitical splits. The global perception of the U.S. as a declining empire, with its focus on short-term conflicts and domestic challenges, has emboldened Beijing to pursue its long-term vision of economic and political ascendancy. This shift is not without its challenges, but it underscores the evolving nature of U.S.-China relations. While the original "three Ts" defined the early years of this partnership, today’s "four Ts" reflect a more complex interplay of interests, alliances, and strategic foresight.

Looking ahead, the question remains: how will this dynamic shape the future of U.S.-China ties? With Trump’s emphasis on trade and technology, and Xi’s continued consolidation of power, the two nations may find themselves locked in a protracted but mutually beneficial dance. The outcome of this summit will likely be a blend of concessions and strategic gains, revealing the depth of their intertwined destinies. For now, the narrative of the U.S. as a declining power and China as its rising counterpart continues to dominate, a testament to the power of perception in shaping international relations.

In the end, the story of the U.S.-China relationship is one of adaptation and reinvention. From the moral debates of the 1990s to the economic pragmatism of today, the two nations have redefined their priorities while maintaining a delicate equilibrium. As the world watches the interplay between tariffs, technology, and global alliances, the lessons of the past three decades remain relevant—though the players, the stakes, and the strategies have all evolved in ways that would have seemed unimaginable just a decade ago.