As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?

As Former Nato Chief Warns About Defence Spending, How Much Has the Military Shrunk?

Lord Robertson, the former NATO secretary general and Labour defence secretary, has raised concerns over the UK’s current defence strategy, claiming it endangers national security. He argues that the government is failing to allocate sufficient resources to maintain an effective military force. In a recent statement, Robertson emphasized:

“We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget.”

UK Military Size in 1990 vs. Today

Comparing the military’s scale from the late Cold War to the present, the BBC Verify team has analyzed the reduction in personnel. In 1990, the British Army had 153,000 regular soldiers, but that number has dropped to 73,790 today. The 2025 Strategic Defence Review (SDR) set a target to keep the regular army above 73,000, though enlistment applications have decreased by 40% since 2024.

Reservists have also declined significantly, falling from 76,000 in 1990 to 25,770 currently. Meanwhile, the Royal Navy’s fleet has shrunk from 48 major combat ships—13 destroyers and 35 frigates—to just 11 frigates and 6 destroyers. The RAF, once boasting over 300 combat jets, now operates 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and 37 F-35 Lightning II aircraft, which are more advanced but fewer in number.

The Rise of Drones and Changing Threats

Drones have emerged as a critical component of the UK’s air capabilities, a development absent in 1990. These unmanned systems have gained prominence due to their effectiveness in conflicts like Ukraine, where they reportedly kill more individuals than traditional artillery. Experts stress the need for increased investment in such technology.

Despite the SDR’s recommendation for a “segmented approach” to streamline procurement, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) continues to face delays. The National Audit Office noted that contracts for projects over £20 million often take six and a half years to finalize, undermining efficiency. The 2025 SDR aimed to address this by prioritizing faster delivery timelines, yet progress on 12 of the MoD’s 47 major projects remains “unachievable” according to recent assessments.

Defence Spending and NATO Targets

The government has defended its strategy, asserting it plans the biggest defence spending increase since the Cold War. However, critics point out that spending has generally declined since the Berlin Wall fell. Current projections suggest the UK will allocate 2.3% of GDP to defence in 2025, placing it near the midpoint of NATO member contributions.

Looking ahead, the UK aims to spend 3% of GDP on defence by the next parliament and 5% on “national security” by 2035. This includes 3.5% for core defence and an additional 1.5% for infrastructure protection and civil preparedness. While only three nations—Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia—exceeded the 3.5% threshold in 2025, the UK’s commitment reflects ongoing concerns about global security threats.

Welfare vs. Defence: A Spending Dilemma

Robertson’s critique also highlights the disparity between welfare and defence budgets. In the mid-1980s, defence spending surpassed welfare costs, but the trend has reversed. Welfare spending is now higher and is expected to rise to 4.3% of GDP by the end of the decade, driven in part by increased Personal Independence Payment claims. While mental health conditions may contribute to this growth, researchers remain divided on the exact drivers.

The MoD, responsible for 47 of the government’s 213 major projects, has faced repeated challenges in meeting deadlines and budgets. The National Audit Office recently underscored these issues, warning that many projects struggle to achieve their goals within required timelines. This raises questions about the effectiveness of current strategies amid rising geopolitical tensions and the need for modern military capabilities.