Why did US and Israel attack Iran and how long could the war last?

Escalation of Middle East Conflict

The Middle East remains in turmoil following coordinated strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, which resulted in the death of Iran’s supreme leader on 28 February. In response, Iran launched attacks on Israel and Gulf nations supporting the US. The conflict rapidly expanded into Lebanon, intensifying casualties and damage across regions.

Targeting Iran’s Infrastructure and Leadership

Initial strikes focused on Iran’s missile systems, military installations, and key figures in Tehran and beyond. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had led Iran since 1989, was among the casualties during the first wave of attacks. Israel claimed dozens of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members were also eliminated. Mojtaba Khamenei was named as his successor on 8 March.

“The targeting of civilians and of countries not…”

International Claims and Casualties

A US-based group, Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA), reported that 3,530 individuals, including 1,606 civilians—244 children—were killed in Iran since the conflict began. Iran alleged that a girls’ school near an IRGC base in southern Iran was hit by a US and Israeli strike on 28 February, claiming 168 deaths, with about 110 children. The US is investigating the incident, while Israel said it was “not aware” of any operations in the area. BBC Verify noted that video analysis showed a US Tomahawk missile struck a military base close to the school.

Energy and Military Targets

Strikes also targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, which the country insists are peaceful, and energy infrastructure like Kharg Island’s oil terminal—a critical economic asset—and South Pars, part of the world’s largest natural gas field. On 4 March, a US submarine sank an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka, killing at least 87 people.

Journalistic Access and Communication

International journalists face restricted access to Iran, and internet connectivity has been nearly cut off. On 3 April, a US F-15 jet was shot down over western Iran. The pilot was rescued, and a search-and-rescue mission—facing fire—was launched to find the second crew member. By 4 April, the pilot was recovered, and Trump confirmed the outcome shortly after.

Expanding the Conflict

Attacks spread to countries hosting US bases, such as Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, UAE, and Kuwait, as well as US allies Oman and Saudi Arabia. Thirteen US service members were killed. Iran has been accused of attacking oil and gas sites, shipping lanes, and civilian locations, with at least 24 fatalities across the Gulf, most involving security personnel or foreign workers.

Regional Impact

The UAE reported 13 deaths, including a civilian contractor killed in Bahrain. Seven perished in Kuwait, while Oman and Saudi Arabia each recorded two casualties. In northern Iraq, a French soldier was killed by a drone at a Kurdish military base. On 25 March, seven Iraqi troops were killed in an airstrike in Anbar province, though the attack’s origin was unspecified. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), formed to combat ISIS, stated at least 27 of their members were killed in the conflict.

Further Regional Incidents

Four Palestinian women were killed at a beauty salon in the Israeli-occupied West Bank during an Iranian missile strike. Turkey claimed NATO air defenses downed three Iranian missiles in its airspace, while Azerbaijan accused Iran of drone attacks on an airport. The US and its Arab allies condemned Iran’s actions, emphasizing the targeting of civilians and non-combatant locations.