800 million young people face a future without jobs

UNDP Warns of Vast Youth Employment Gap in Developing Economies

Provpnmatrix.com – Developing economies could face an employment shortfall affecting roughly 800 million young people over the next 15 years unless governments take decisive action to expand opportunity, the United Nations Development Programme has warned.

The scale of the challenge is tied to a major demographic shift. Large numbers of young people are completing school and preparing to enter the workforce, particularly in countries where the population is comparatively young. Yet employment growth is not currently expected to match that influx.

“If you look at the next 15 years, there will be 1.2 billion young people graduating from school, going into the labour market.”

Speaking from Bangkok during the World Bank Group-International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings, UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo said that present projections point to jobs for only 400 million of those 1.2 billion future labour-market entrants.

“Unfortunately, for only 400 million of these, there will be jobs. For 800 million of these, there will not be jobs.”

The warning is especially significant for developing nations, many of which have median ages between 18 and 25. A young population can be an enormous economic advantage when education, infrastructure, investment and hiring expand together. Without sufficient employment pathways, however, the promise of a growing workforce can become a source of intensified pressure on households, public services and local economies.

Policy Choices Will Shape the Outcome

De Croo stressed that the projected gap should not be viewed as inevitable. The figures are rooted in current technology trends and existing economic conditions, but public policy can influence whether businesses invest, whether people gain relevant skills and whether promising sectors are able to grow.

“That is not going to go by itself. This is the result of policy,” he said.

For young people, the issue reaches beyond the availability of a first job. Stable work can create a route toward income security, experience, independence and long-term participation in the economy. For governments, broad-based employment growth can strengthen communities and widen the tax base needed to fund essential services.

UNDP has launched two initiatives designed to address practical obstacles that often slow job creation. The Investment Accelerator will support governments as they seek to improve investment rules and legal frameworks. It will also focus on developing a stronger pipeline of projects that investors can support, helping move viable plans from early preparation into implementation.

The second programme, the Jobs for Prosperity Facility, is intended to help countries pinpoint industries with the strongest capacity to employ people. Its work will include matching education and training more closely to employer demand, while addressing barriers that discourage companies from investing or expanding their workforce.

Artificial Intelligence Is One Factor, Not the Entire Story

Questions about artificial intelligence have become central to discussions about the future of work. Automation and AI may alter the kinds of skills employers seek and change how some tasks are performed. De Croo said, however, that active labour-market policies can still affect the overall outlook.

He pointed to care services, agriculture and tourism as areas that can continue to generate substantial employment even as AI develops more rapidly. The implication is that countries will need to make choices about where they direct investment, how they prepare workers and whether they create conditions that allow labour-intensive sectors to thrive alongside technological change.

“Job creation is actually the only real sustainable way for people to grow out of poverty,” he said.

The initiatives will be supported through expanded partnerships involving the World Bank Group, the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Pilot efforts are already under way in Nepal, Yemen, Haiti, Lebanon and Ghana.

Economic Shocks Are Limiting Room to Respond

The employment challenge is unfolding while many developing countries are dealing with what De Croo described as a “triple shock”: elevated energy prices, one of the strongest El Niño events since 1950, and exceptionally high borrowing costs.

These pressures can narrow the financial space available for public investment in schools, training, transport, energy systems and social protection. They can also make it harder for governments to support businesses that need reliable infrastructure and predictable conditions in order to hire.

A new UNDP publication, No Time to Recover, highlights the seriousness of the debt burden. The median developing country now directs 9.5 per cent of total government income solely to interest payments. Money used for servicing debt cannot easily be redirected to employment programmes or other development priorities.

The report also shows a reversal in progress against multidimensional poverty. For the first time since 2010, the number of people living in this form of poverty has increased. Multidimensional poverty considers more than earnings, including access to electricity, water, health care and education.

“Those numbers should absolutely be a wake-up call to all of us,” Mr. De Croo said.

Although the global economy has shown greater resilience than many had anticipated, its benefits and protections remain uneven. Some countries have stronger economic foundations and may be better able to withstand another disruption. Others face far less capacity to absorb fresh shocks while creating enough work for a rapidly expanding young population.

“Some countries have still quite strong economic fundamentals. Others do not have the fundamentals to withstand further shocks.”

The coming years will test whether international partnerships, domestic reforms and targeted investment can turn a growing youth population into an engine of shared prosperity. The alternative is a widening gap between the number of young people ready to work and the number of jobs available to them.